Impact of extreme climate changes on the predicted crops in Poland
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Authors: | Waldemar Bojar1, Leszek Knopik1, Jacek Żarski2, Cezary Sławiński3, Piotr Baranowski3, Wojciech Żarski1 1University of Technology and Life Sciences, Faculty of Management ul. Forodońska 430, 85-790 Bydgoszcz, Poland 2University of Technology and Life Sciences, Faculty of Agriculture and Biotechnology ul. Bernardyńska 6, 85-029 Bydgoszcz, Poland 3Institute of Agrophysics PAS, 20-290 Lublin, ul. Doświadczalna 4, 20-290 Lublin, Poland |
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Abstract : | The paper presents general characteristics of resources and outputs of agriculture in the Kujawsko-Pomorskie and Lubelskie Regions, based on statistical databases and literature review. Some specific features of the regions, with special consideration for the predicted extreme climate changes, are also included. Next, some statistically significant dependencies between the climatic parameters and yields of selected important crops in the abovementioned regions were worked out on the basis of empirical survey conducted in the University of Technology and Life Sciences, Bydgoszcz, and the Institute of Agrophysics in Lublin. Creating an appropriate method of forecasting long series of ten days without precipitation was necessary to find the desired dependencies. Third, some efforts were taken to make integrated assessments of forecast agricultural outputs influenced by climate extreme phenomena on the basis of the yield-precipitation relations obtained and on the data coming from wide area model regional outputs such as prices of farmland and produce. |
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Keywords : | agricultural economics, agriculture, climate change, crop production, integrating assessments | ||||||||
Language : | English |